「二正面作戦」?

「クーデタ」緒戦の簡潔なまとめ(英国防省ツイッター)。

(13) Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 on Twitter: "Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 24 June 2023. Find out more about Defence Intelligence's use of language: https://t.co/K6An5jd2B8 🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 https://t.co/M3E5L0EHLB" / Twitter

次の記述がもっとも重要か。

In Rostov-on-Don, Wagner has almost certainly occupied key security sites, including the HQ which runs Russia’s military operations in Ukraine.

With very limited evidence of fighting between Wagner and Russian security forces, some have likely remained passive, acquiescing to Wagner.

正規軍側がワグネル進軍を黙許しているかのような記述は、プリゴジンの次のメッセージで裏付けられる。

Wagner’s ‘march of justice’ All of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s posts about his apparent military coup — Meduza

June 23, 22:39
The majority of the troops support us strongly. We get messages like “Thanks, guys! Finally justice is coming to the army. You’ll finally get it so they give us ammunition and stop throwing us out like dead meat.” The information has just come in that the defense minister tried to hide 2,000 bodies stored in the Rostov morgue, so as not to show losses.

すでにこのくだりに、前線兵士の窮状(苦戦をもたらす弾薬不足)への改善を国防相に対して求めるのがこのたびの「蜂起」の大義であるということが明示されている。プリゴジン支配下に収めたとするロストフで、南部軍管区の司令官との間で次のような対談を行っている。

‘We’re saving Russia’ In a meeting with military leaders, Yevgeny Prigozhin demanded respect. Read the transcript. — Meduza

現地の副参謀長との間の以下のやり取りは興味深い。

Prigozhin: We’re not preventing you from commanding your troops.

Yevkurov: You shouldn’t prevent us, of course, [unintelligible], people are dying out there, just like all the others.

Prigozhin: The reason guys are dying is that you’re throwing them into the meat grinder.

Yevkurov: (distracted by his phone ringing) [unintelligible] this question.

Prigozhin: This question isn’t rhetorical. People are dying because you’re throwing them into the meat grinder. Without ammunition, without any thoughts, without any plans.

Yevkurov: You believe everything you’re doing right now is right. Is that right?

Prigozhin: Absolutely right. We’re saving Russia.

弾薬不足、戦略不備の戦争により、多くの命が失われた。自分たちの行動はこうした状況からロシアを救うためのものだとしている。趣旨は明快だ。

一方、プーチン大統領は「裏切り行為」を厳罰でもって処すると表明した。

‘We’re faced with a betrayal’ Vladimir Putin addressed the country, promising harsh measures for Yevgeny Prigozhin and Wagner insurgents — Meduza

「特別軍事作戦」の「大義」があらためて表明されている。

Russia today is fighting an uphill battle for its future and is repelling the aggression of the neo-Nazis and their masters. In fact, the entire military, economic, and propaganda machine of the West are directed against us. We are fighting for the life and security of our people, for our sovereignty and independence. For the right to be and remain Russia — a state with a 1,000-year history.

次のくだりには若干の「嘆き節」を伴う、ワグネル兵士への慰撫が入っている。

... and the cause for which Wagner Group soldiers and commanders had fought and died, side by side with our other units. The heroes who liberated Soledar and Artyomovsk [Bakhmut], towns and villages of Donbass, fought and gave their lives for Novorossiya [ウクライナをロシアの一部と見なすイデオロギー的名称], for the unity of the Russian world. Their name and their glory have been betrayed by those who are trying to organize an insurrection, pushing the country towards anarchy and fratricide, and ultimately towards defeat and capitulation.

ここで述べられた軍事作戦の「大義」は以下のようにまとめることができよう。①「ネオナチ」とその「親玉」(西側諸国)による「侵略」を掃討すること、②西側諸国のロシアに対する軍事的、経済的、プロパガンダ的脅威を取り除くこと、③ロシアの伝統と一体性を守ること、④(そのために)ドンバス地域の解放と「ノヴォロシア」を実現すること。

もはや念仏のように繰り返されるこれらの「大義」を、このたびプリゴジンは以下のようにすべて否定したようだ。

"The Ministry of Defense is trying to deceive the public and the president and spin the story that there were insane levels of aggression from the Ukrainian side and that they were going to attack us together with the whole NATO block," the Russian businessman said. "The special operation was started for a completely different reason." Prigozhin Says Putin's Reason for Invading Ukraine Was a Lie (newsweek.com)

SNSで拡散している動画を見ても、「緒戦」では、正規軍の無抵抗(「無血開城」?)とも言える無為無策が際立っているようだが、プーチンの指示を得てこれから正規軍が「テロ掃討」の本腰を入れることになる。国外のウクライナに加えて国内の反乱軍(およびこれに同調する義勇軍組織を含む)が敵方として加わったことになる。

(追記)この間の経緯をくわしくまとめた記事

プーチン大統領、ワグネルを「裏切り」と緊急演説で非難 プリゴジン氏は「死ぬ覚悟」 - BBCニュース